Playing a long game
持久战

THINGS have not been going well for Sony lately. （1）Last month senior executives at the Japanese electronics giant issued an unprecedented apology after discovering that 9.6m laptop batteries, supplied to other computer-makers, were faulty and would have to be recalled at a cost of $436m. Sony's Blu-ray high-definition technology, launched this summer, has suffered from delays and component shortages, and is embroiled in a standards war with the rival HD-DVD format. American regulators began investigating the company last month as part of an inquiry into allegations of price-fixing in the memory-chip market. And having long been the world's most valuable electronics firm by stockmarket value, Sony's market capitalisation has fallen to less than half that of Samsung, its South Korean rival. "They really need some good news," says Paul Jackson of Forrester, a consultancy.

近来索尼的情况一直都不太妙。10月，在发现960万块供给其它电脑制造商的笔记本电池存在瑕疵、必须予以召回之后，这个日本电子业巨人的高层主管史无前例地公开表示了歉意。此次召回事件使得索尼遭受的损失达到4.36亿美元。今年夏天索尼发布的蓝光（Blue-ray）高清晰技术曾数度被延迟上市，并遭遇元件短缺危机。现如今这一技术又卷入了与其竞争对手HD-DVD格式之间的DVD标准大战之中。上个月，为了核实索尼在内存条市场存在的价格垄断问题，美国监管部门对该公司进行了调查。索尼长期以来都是全球证券市场最有价值的电子公司，而现在其市场资本总额已经锐减，不到其韩国对手三星公司的一半。　Forrester咨询公司的保罗?杰克逊说："他们真得需要点喜讯了。"

（2）So a lot is riding on the PlayStation 3 (PS3), the latest incarnation of Sony's industry-leading games console, which was launched with much fanfare[1] in Japan on November 11th. In Akihabara, Tokyo's neon-lit electronics district, stores drafted in extra workers to cope with easily the biggest product launch of the year. At the Yurakucho flagship store of Bic Camera, one of Japan's largest electronics retailers, hundreds of gamers queued through a cold, damp night. Ken Kutaragi, who runs Sony's gaming division, was there to welcome them in the morning.

这多半还是要依靠PS3。11月11日，索尼在日本大张旗鼓地发布了PS3，而PS3也是索尼在游戏主机方面产业领先优势的最新体现。在东京霓虹闪耀的秋叶原电子一条街，商店为了应付这场无疑是年度最大的产品发布，都额外招募了一些人手。在比酷电器（日本最大的电子产品零售商之一）有乐町旗舰店，成百上千的游戏玩家排队等候了又冷又湿的一夜。清晨，负责索尼游戏业务的久多良木健在店里接待了他们.

At Yodobashi Camera in the southern city of Fukuoka, （3）half of the 400 people queuing were Chinese immigrants with orders to snap up[2] the store's assignment for resale online in China. Across Japan, the PS3 had sold out by lunchtime. Similar scenes were expected at its American launch on November 17th. On Tuesday there were already over 100 people camping outside Sony's New York store.

在位于日本南部城市福冈的淀桥电器，排队等候的400人之中有一半是中国移民。有人雇佣他们到商店抢购，然后再拿到中国在网上转让。截至午餐时间，全日本的PS3均已售罄。11月17日PS3将在美国上市，此情此景有望再现。11月14日，已有100多人在索尼纽约专卖店外"安营扎寨"。

Sony needs the PS3 to succeed for three reasons: to maintain its lucrative dominance of the games industry; to seed the market for Blu-ray and establish Sony in the emerging market for internet video downloads; and to demonstrate that the turnaround being led by Howard Stringer, who took over as chief executive in 2005, is working and that Sony's gaming, electronics and content divisions really can work together. Despite the enthusiasm of the PS3's early buyers, success in each of these areas is far from assured.

索尼之所以希望PS3务必获得成功，原因有三：一是要维持其在游戏产业中利润上的垄断优势；二是要奠定蓝光技术的市场基础，确立索尼在新兴的网上视频下载服务市场中的地位；三是要表明在2005年接手成为索尼CEO的霍华德.斯金格的带领下，他们正在扭转颓势，而且索尼的游戏、电子硬件产品和内容产品（娱乐）确实是可以融为一体的。不过，虽然先期购买PS3的玩家热情满怀，但现在谁也无法保证索尼在上述每一个领域中都能获得成功。

In gaming, Sony faces far stronger competition than it did when it launched the PlayStation 2 in 2000. The PS2 went on to sell over 100m units, giving Sony 70% of the market. （4）But gaming is a cyclical business, and success in one round does not guarantee success in the next. Microsoft has already sold over 6m of its Xbox 360 consoles, launched a year ago, and expects to have sold 10m by the end of 2006. Nintendo, Sony's other rival, will launch its new console, the Wii, on November 19th, and expects to sell 4m units by the end of the year. Manufacturing problems delayed the PS3's launch from May and meant that only 93,000 consoles were available for the Japanese launch. Sony hopes to sell 2m by the end of the year, but even if it does so, it will start the race in third place.

就游戏来看，索尼面临的竞争压力要比它在2000年发布PS2时大得多。PS2卖了1亿多台，帮助索尼占据了70％的市场。但是游戏行业"风水轮流转"，这次的成功并不能确保下一次也能成功。微软一年前推出的Xbox 360主机现已卖出了600多万台，到2006年底有望达到1千万台。索尼另一个对手任天堂将于将于11月19日发布新主机Wii，并有望在年底前售出400万台。制造工艺方面的难题导致PS3原定于5月份的发布被延迟至今，并且造成仅有9.3万台主机在日本上市。索尼希望年底前能卖出200万台PS3，可即便如此，它在这场竞争中一开始也只能排在第三位了.

Availability is one weakness; pricing is another. The PS3 is available in two configurations, costing $500 and $600 in America, and ￥50,000 ($425) and ￥60,000 ($510) in Japan. That is far more than rival consoles (the Xbox 360 starts at $300 and the Wii costs $250) and is due to the inclusion of a Blu-ray optical drive in every PS3.

货源短缺是一方面，此外价格上也存在问题。上市的PS3有两种配置，在美国的价格分别为500美元和600美元，在日本为5万日元（425美元）和6万日元（510美元）。这一价格远远高于其对手生产的主机（Xbox 360起价300美元，而Wii仅需250美元），价高的原因在于每一款PS3中都整合了蓝光光驱技术。

（5）Sony will lose money on each PS3 sold for the first couple of years until higher volumes and design improvements reduce costs. But it will make money by taking a cut of every game sold. Worryingly, however, less than one game was sold per PS3 in Japan this week, which suggests that some buyers regard the PS3 as a subsidised Blu-ray player-which it is. Dedicated Blu-ray players start at around $750. The PS3, in short, will not be the moneyspinner[3] that the PS2 was for quite some time, and it seems unlikely to achieve the market share of its predecessors.

索尼在头几年里每卖一台PS3都会亏本，除非增大销量并进行设计改进以降低成本。但是，它如果能从售出的每一款游戏中分成，就可以捞取利润了。然而令人担忧的是，本周日本售出的PS3平均每台连一款游戏都不到。这表明有些买主把PS3当成了"享受补贴的"蓝光播放器--事实上的确如此。专用的蓝光播放器起价大约750美元。简言之，PS3不会像PS2那样在相当一段时间内为索尼带来滚滚财源，并且似乎也不可能达到PS2的市场占有率。

The PS3 is also meant to ensure that Blu-ray triumphs over HD-DVD as the high-definition successor to the DVD video format. The idea is that millions of PS3s bought by gamers will seed the market for Blu-ray, providing it with critical mass and ensuring that Hollywood studios, which are reluctant to back two rival standards, plump[4] for Blu-ray over HD-DVD. （6）But instead of riding the PS3 as a Trojan horse, Blu-ray has instead hobbled it by increasing its price and delaying its introduction. The battle between Blu-ray and HD-DVD may even prove irrelevant, as internet downloads become the medium of choice for high-definition video. Both Sony and Microsoft plan to sell high-definition video downloads via their consoles.

PS3的意义还在于，索尼希望借以确保蓝光技术能够战胜HD-DVD，成为高清晰DVD视频格式的"接班人"。索尼的如意算盘是，玩家购买的数百万台PS3将为蓝光技术奠定市场基础，使之达到临界规模（容量），并确保不愿同时支持两款对立标准格式的好莱坞电影公司在仔细斟酌后选择蓝光技术而

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